Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the high growth that Indian economy has logged in the first quarter of the current fiscal was on account of the UPA policies and the new government must give it the due credit.
Forecasters have been converging in the 7.5-8 per cent range when it comes to growth for the full year, and the first-quarter numbers are consistent with that. Yet, it seems the underlying trend is strong enough to limit the damage caused by the downturn, a factor critical to sustaining investment levels in the economy.
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India may remain tepid in 2022, said a recent note by Goldman Sachs, who now peg the foreign portfolio investment into India at $5 billion in 2022, down from their earlier forecast of $30 billion with risks skewed to the downside. "There has been $15 billion of equity outflows YTD in India already, and the IPO of the largest insurance company has been pushed out. "Additionally, with no mention of India's inclusion in global bond indices in the Union Budget, there are risks to our already conservative base case assumption of an announcement of India's likely inclusion into the GBI-EM Global Diversified Bond Index in Q4-2022," wrote Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist in a co-authored report with Santanu Sengupta and Suraj Kumar.
The GDP growth is estimated to come at the "deceptively high" level of 20 per cent for the April-June 2021 quarter but is far below the same in the pre-COVID times, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday. Icra said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 per cent, "conceals" the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports and demand from the farm sector, it said, estimating the GDP to grow by 20 per cent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 per cent for the June quarter.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said cryptocurrencies are akin to 'a world of Caribbean pirates' in the absence of a centralised regulatory authority and are yet to pass the test of a fiat currency. He said that the government is pursuing a 'high-wire balancing act' to ensure that the gains in growth, inflation, and rupee stability of the last four years are not frittered away. He said the recent development in Terra-Luna cryptocurrency, which witnessed a massive meltdown last month, is a 'very important cautionary tale'.
A bit of economic reforms stalled and decisions delayed -- what Narayana Murthy spoke of -- don't hurt if a country's compassionate and inclusive social fabric has survived intact; if the country is happy, observes Shyam G Menon.
Nestle India was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding around 2 per cent, followed by SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HUL and Dr Reddy's. NSE Nifty slipped 20.10 points to 15,670.25.
The IMF lowered India's economic growth estimate for the current fiscal to 4.8 per cent and listed the country's much lower-than-expected GDP numbers as the single biggest drag on its global growth forecast for two years.
The EIU said in a report on Wednesday forecast that the real GDP grew by 1.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in India, but noted that this uptick was largely owing to base effect.
With this subdued forecast, India is likely to record its worst growth performance since the 1991 liberalisation. However, it is among the only two major economies, which will register a positive growth rate in 2020. The other being China, for which the IMF has projected a growth rate of 1.2 per cent.
The ministry is awaiting some more data in the next few days to arrive at a precise number.
China's GDP grew by 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, down from 7.9 per cent in the second, confirming the slowdown of the world's second-largest economy which was under pressure from the crisis-hit property sector, curbs on energy and tardy recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Fitch Solutions sees RBI keeping benchmark interest rates unchanged during the fiscal to March 2022 following its decision to buy Rs 1 lakh crore of government bonds. "We had initially expected another policy rate cut to arrest the rise in government bond yields since the Union Budget announcement in February. "However, having an explicit bond purchase guidance from the RBI following the announcement of the G-SAP will also achieve a similar effect, if not even be more effective than a rate cut on capping the increase in bond yields," it said in a note. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy repurchase (repo) rate unchanged at 4 per cent at its monetary policy meeting on April 7.
India, which appears to have been pushed back to being the world's sixth biggest economy in 2020, will again overtake the UK to become the fifth largest in 2025 and race to the third spot by 2030, a think tank said on Saturday. India had overtaken the UK in 2019 to become the fifth largest economy in the world but has been relegated to 6th spot in 2020. "India has been knocked off course somewhat through the impact of the pandemic. "As a result, after overtaking the UK in 2019, the UK overtakes India again in this year's forecasts and stays ahead till 2024 before India takes over again," the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said in an annual report published on Saturday. The UK appears to have overtaken India again during 2020 as a result of the weakness of the rupee, it said.
"When you have two relatively large economies growing at 7 and 10 per cent, respectively, India and China, they are contributing quite a lot to global growth," IMF deputy director, Asia and Pacific department, Kalpana Kochhar, said during a teleconference in Washington.
The current geopolitical situation necessitates the Indian Air Force to prepare for intense and small duration operations at a short notice, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari said on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
Amazon has reclaimed the top spot as the world's most valuable brand despite its brand value falling 15 per cent this year from $350.3 billion to $299.3 billion, said a new report. According to brand valuation consultancy Brand Finance's report, "Global 500 2023", while Amazon is back at No 1, its brand value has fallen by over $50 billion this year, with its rating slipping from AAA+ to AAA. This is as consumers evaluate it more harshly in the post-pandemic world. Brand Finance's research has found that perception of customer service at Amazon has fallen - at the same time as delivery times have lengthened.
The dollar moved higher, while prices for US government debt fell, as traders ramped up bets the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in March
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
Armed with necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on its way to becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, a finance ministry report said. Rapid vaccination and teeming festivities will push India's ongoing recovery resulting in narrowing of demand-supply mismatches and greater employment opportunities, as per the monthly Economic Review prepared by the ministry.
The 42-year-old is holding a solid 55 per cent lead with the Oddschecker betting odds aggregator, followed by a 29 per cent chance of former prime minister Boris Johnson making a comeback. Third placed in what is emerging as a three-way contest is Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt, who had polled third in the first round of parliamentary votes to shortlist candidates for the last leadership race.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
Covid-19, US yields, dollar to weigh on equity flows in the near term.
India's economy is moving towards a higher growth trajectory and is likely to grow at around 10 per cent in 2021-22, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) chairman Bibek Debroy said on Wednesday. "I am confident that we are on a path towards a higher growth trajectory, higher poverty reduction, higher employment, and a prosperous, more developed and better governed India. "I think it is, more or less, agreed that the real rate of growth this year (FY2022) is going to be around 10 per cent," Debroy said at an SBI event. At the beginning of FY2021-22, the forecasts for real growth were in the 8.5-12.5 per cent range, he noted.
Economy grew by 8.6 per cent in 2010-11.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
There is little evidence that investments are picking up in the private sector or in infrastructure, says Abheek Barua
'Q1 is going to bear the brunt of the second wave, exposing full-year GDP forecasts to downward revisions, unless phase-3 of vaccination is executed quickly.'
Religion matters. Aspirational India is still poor. India admires strong leaders. India values decency. Shreekant Sambrani highlights the reasons why the BJP pulled off improbable victories in the Hindi heartland.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at over 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday, while observing that the growth rate should sustain next year too provided the forthcoming Budget does not have any negative surprises. Panagariya further said recessionary fears have been around for a while but so far neither the US nor the EU has gone into recession. "From the viewpoint of India, in terms of headwinds originating abroad, the worst is probably behind us," he told PTI.
Stating that an economic recession gripped global economy following the lockdowns due to COVID-19 pandemic, Fitch Ratings on Friday said the initial disruptions to regional manufacturing supply chains in China have now broadened to include local discretionary spending and exports.
India's services sector lost momentum in July as demand was curtailed by competitive pressures, elevated inflation and unfavourable weather, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 59.2 in June to 55.5 in July, pointing to the slowest rate of growth in four months. For the 12th straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
These sweeping financial sanctions follow the action earlier this week to cut off Russia's frozen funds in the United States to make debt payments.
Above-normal heatwave days are predicted in most parts of central, east and northwest India during this period.
According to 'India PE Report 2010', released by global consultancy Bain & Company, there is renewed confidence among the leading PE investors about the Indian market.
Cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, has rapidly intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, with meteorologists predicting a 'mild' monsoon onset over Kerala and 'weak' progress beyond southern peninsular under its influence.
Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on Monday said the central bank will have to raise interest rates to tame inflation and the hikes need not be considered by politicians and bureaucrats as some "anti-national" activity. Known for his frank views, Rajan also said it was important to remember that the "war against inflation" is never over. "Inflation is up in India. At some point, the RBI will have to raise rates, like the rest of the world is doing," he said in a LinkedIn post.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
Economic growth is likely to plummet to a multi-decade low of 1.6 per cent in fiscal year 2020-21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing measures like lockdowns and social distancing, an American brokerage said on Wednesday in one of the bleakest forecasts on GDP yet. Indian policymakers have not been aggressive enough in their response till now to the crisis, and will need to eventually intensify their efforts, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
